[271][289] Turkey further escalated regional tensions when it threatened to open its borders with Europe to allow Syrian refugees to leave, prompting Greece and Bulgaria to tighten border security. ... 22.00 EST Last modified on Wed 1 Jul 2020 13.23 EDT. Displacement & Destruction: Analysis of Idlib, Syria 2017-2020. [355], On the morning of 5 March, opposition sources and The Independent reported a major Russian airstrike on an IDP camp near Maarrat Misrin, killing at least 15. [398][399][400][401] By early March, estimates had risen to 980,000. [95], On 1 December, according to government sources,[which?] We should applaud the Syrian military’s actions in Idlib, not deplore them. [391] By 5 February 2020, 300 civilians had been killed in the fighting, including 49 in the first five days of February, and 520,000 were displaced (80% of the latter women and children), according to the UN and various NGOs. This situation prompted intensified internationalisation of the “Idlib dossier”, while it also meant that further developments were volatile and had an element of chance to them. Copy link. This will give Moscow an opportunity to push the Syrian regime harder on matters of corruption and mismanagement. The West and Russia will need to work on implementing a viable monitoring mechanism for aid flows channelled via Damascus. Syrie : « Nul n’imagine les souffrances des déplacés d’Idlib » Les forces du régime syrien ont pénétré dans la ville stratégique de Maarat Al-Noman, dans la province rebelle d’Idlib. Since mid-20th century the conflict has been referred to as the ‘most intractable conflict’ in the world with the ongoing Israeli occupation. For this, the political arrangement should be right with adequate involvement of International Organizations such as the UN. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website. Share. HTS and its allies claimed to recapture Abu Jurayf in a counterattack that killed more than ten Syrian troops, due to the SAA failing to secure the town after initially storming it. [392][196][393] By 14 February, 10 Canadian aid organisations reported that 142,000 people had fled their homes in the past five days alone, including 6,500 children a day, bringing the total number of people displaced to over 800,000 since December. [210][211] Syrian state media also shared images of Aleppo residents apparently celebrating the recent advances, which reportedly pushed rebel mortar teams out of adequate firing range of the city for the first time in years and, along with the capture of the M5, was set to facilitate future civilian movement between northern and southern Syria up to pre-war levels. [389] According to SOHR, in the week up to 24 December 100,000 people were displaced because of the fighting as well as Syrian and Russian bombing. [29], On 21 December, according to pro-government sources, several pro-government fighters were killed in an ambush by the NFL in Latakia, with several light weapons also captured. [223][224], Russian news agency RIA Novosti said that the Russian Ministry of Defence contacted Turkish forces and asked them to end artillery support to the rebels and that they did so. Muslim countries united joining hands in hands with their Muslim brothers and sisters. [335] Meanwhile, the U.S. government continued to express some support for Turkey, saying it would provide ammunition and aid and was examining a request for air defenses. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani said that their priority was to preserve a single secular administration in Idlib, referring to the umbrella Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) founded on November 2, 2017; it consisted of both HTS supporters and independent technocrats. Boarder modifications and acceptance for two-state solution tend to develop the ideal conditions for this relationship. According to SOHR, pro-government forces were besieging Ma'arrat al-Nu'man from three sides and had captured 22 areas since 24 January; SOHR recorded 91 deaths among pro-government forces and 112 among the rebels, including 89 jihadists, since 24 January. As a leading external actor in the Syrian conflict, Russia has the ability to now contribute to bringing a peaceful settlement closer in Idlib by 1) pointing the Syrian authorities toward pacification instead of a blitzkrieg; 2) advancing, jointly with Turkey among other actors, the involvement of the regional elite in the inclusive Syrian peaceful process; 3) continuing its military support for Syria’s government forces to prevent provocations by Idlib radicals intended to undermine the prospects for a peaceful settlement. Fighters of the Syrian National Army loyal to the Syrian Interim Government (concentrated in Aleppo) and some 20,000 fighters aligned with the internationally proscribed terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and loyal to the Syrian Salvation Government (concentrated in Idlib - see National Front for Liberation–Tahrir al-Sham conflict) held out against the government and its allies, with a civilian population of three million living in the area. [153] The next day, Russian warplanes reportedly struck the Sarmin Health Center, leading to the almost complete destruction of the building. This is nowhere more so than in the province of Idlib, which is home to nearly 3 million people who now live under the control of extremist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) with external Turkish protection and humanitarian assistance from the United Nations. An NFL spokesman said the assault had taken place earlier in the week. [309] Since foreign aid is politicised (see, for instance, the highly publicised story of American and British NGOs halting deliveries of humanitarian aid from Turkey through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing in September 2018 in an attempt to strip Idlib radicals of their benefits), it is easy to predict that an “overnight” change of the status quo in favour of Damascus will result in restricting donor aid and, as a consequence, in a humanitarian disaster. This includes the crime against humanity in the region of Ghaza Strip, West Bank, and Israel. October 8, 2020. [332] The SOHR reported fatalities in the ranks of Turkish soldiers as a result of Syrian government shelling on Turkish positions in Sarmin. prompted the ideologues of the An-Nusra Front, Public Institution for Monetary Regulation and Consumer Rights Protection, 10,615 units of military equipment and military vehicles. For its part, the West will need to work with Moscow to exercise pressure on Ankara to use its military presence in Idlib to more comprehensively confront radical Islamists and ensure that aid flows do not empower HTS. The diplomatic ties were broken and chaos and uncertainty prevailed. Idlib jihadists flatly rejected reconciliation with the Syrian authorities, admitting only that civilians had been forced to take part, but they never agreed to such participation on the part of their comrades-in-arms, whom they spitefully dubbed “frogs” for their willingness to defect to the government camp. At the same time, the principle of “invitation” or “Islamic messianism” entailed ideological indoctrination of the population through face-to-face, in-person communication and public condemnation campaigns against smoking and wearing secular clothes. [271] Turkish drone and artillery strikes on Syrian army positions in the east and south of the governorate were reported to have targeted helicopters, tanks, armoured vehicles, howitzers, ammunition trucks and ammunition depots. Importantly, this proposal could also create space for wider political talks on Idlib’s fate. Hezbollah later confirmed eight of the deaths, including an Iranian cleric identified as Sayyed Ali Zengani, while pro-government media also reported Hezbollah deaths. Go to content. [citation needed] Shelling on nearby towns on both the government-controlled and opposition-controlled sides of the frontline were reported, with both Russian and Turkish forces involved in air and artillery support roles respectively. It stated that the Syrian Army had managed to capture over 40 kilometers of the M5 highway and only a 25-kilometer stretch held by rebel forces was preventing it from controlling the highway in its entirety. [403], Hospitals have been heavily targeted in the fighting. [182] By this point, according to Reuters, the government had taken 600 square kilometers (230 square miles) of territory in the offensive, and 700,000 people, mostly women and children, had been displaced—the largest number in a single period since fighting began in 2012 according to the UN—while 200 had been killed. [207], On 17 February, President Bashar al-Assad addressed the nation in a rare televised speech, saying the military operations in Aleppo and Idlib governorates would continue regardless of Turkey's threats, and that the war was not yet over "but it means that we rubbed their noses in the dirt as a prelude for complete victory". The next international showdown on Syria is quickly coming into view. [338] A Turkish fighter jet downed a Syrian Aero L-39 Albatros over Idlib; the pilot of the aircraft managed to eject and Syrian Army units immediately began a ground search to rescue him. [79][80] On 27 February, after intermittent deadly clashes between Turkish and Syrian forces, Turkey formally intervened in the offensive and announced the beginning of Operation Spring Shield with the aim of pushing Syrian government forces back to pre-offensive frontlines. [citation needed] On the same day, according to medics and the SOHR, government airstrikes targeted civilian IDPs on the road near the village of Kafr Naya in the Aleppo countryside. Forces loyal to the Syrian government have attacked the last opposition stronghold in northwest Syria. [citation needed], On 8 February, the army reportedly captured several sites along the strategic M5 highway as it advanced north of Saraqib. [256] Two Turkish soldiers were killed, according to the Turkish foreign ministry. Local reconciliations (or pacifications) in Idlib appeared impossible in principle: this region had absorbed intransigent opposition members from the South of Syria and from the Damascus region, and they had nowhere to go since Turkey had always been set against letting unpredictable radicals on to its own territory. [233] Reuters also reported on-going talks between Turkey and Russia about Syrian airspace. The Syrian Army captured the villages of Barsah and Nouhiya, located west of the Abu al-Duhur Military Airbase. [336][337], On 3 March, Syrian forces launched artillery strikes on Turkish forces located at Taftanaz airport, killing one Turkish soldier and leaving three wounded, according to the SOHR. Finally, Turkey’s leadership and Erdogan himself increasingly view the “Idlib question” through the lens of a difficult dialogue with Russia on the Libyan and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts (on October 25, Russia’s Aerospace Force delivered a strike against the Syrian Corps militants in Idlib, which Russian media dubbed “Bakh for Karabakh”[1]). Pro-government forces began shelling the rebel-held towns of Bernan, Farwan, Barissa, and Halban. Unlike the oil-rich Kurdish regions, which are also Syria’s “breadbasket”, however, Idlib has no natural resources at all. [207] Pro-government media reported that after having many of their supply lines cut off, rebel forces fled west to avoid being encircled by the SAA, thus leaving the army in control of the Greater Aleppo area. [199][183] During 13–16 February, the UN reported that 160,000 people fled from advancing front lines, mostly from Atareb and Darat Izza sub-districts. [200][201][202], On 14 February, a second Syrian Mil Mi-17 helicopter was shot down with a guided missile near Qubtan al-Jabal, killing its crew. This could serve to reactivate the UN Security Council mechanism, which has been paralysed and absent from the Syrian track for too long. The West will not like that it is only a one-year extension and will not like the shift towards Damascus. [204], On 23 December 2019, the United Nations stated that the renewed fighting that started on 18 December had caused an exodus of 80,000 people across Idlib Governorate. [384], After a period of calm, the government and Turkey both sent reinforcements to the area in late May and early June. The clashes reportedly left up to 50 fighters killed and 90 wounded while government forces lost 40 dead and 80 wounded. Steering Russia-US Relations Away from Diplomatic Expulsion Rocks. [220][221][222] After heavy fighting,[219] the rebels managed to briefly seize Nayrab. ... Leader in al-Sham Corps killed in eastern Idlib, and trade fire between rebel factions and regime forces in southern ... 2020 . 2 March 2020 ; Reporting Idlib, from a home under fire ... IDLIB, Syria. About sharing. [208] Meanwhile, Turkish media reported that a 100-vehicle convoy of reinforcements, including troops, tanks and other military vehicles and equipment, had been deployed to the Idlib area. [136] Meanwhile, the SAA reported it had reached the outskirts of Khan Tuman after capturing the last hills to its east during repeated assaults spearheaded by the Republican Guard's 30th Division. The preferable scenario for settling the Idlib problem appears to be a compromise, in essence, pacification adapted to the local specifics. Rebel units subsequently counterattacked pro-government forces in the vicinity of the stronghold. [183], On 11 February, after asserting control over the Rashideen 4 district in western Aleppo and virtually converging the northern and southern front lines in the countryside,[184] it was widely reported that government forces controlled the entirety of the M5 highway for the first time since 2012; however, this was not claimed by government media and opposition sources said fighting continued in some northern areas. [240][241] Turkish forces responded with rocket shelling on government positions. With each escalation, all that comes forward is another resolution by UNSC for Israel to withdraw, statements from various states condemning the situation, and wait for another incident. Heightened internationalisation is also due to the maximum number of external actors turning their attention to the Idlib “pocket”. Moreover, European Union (EU) and United States (US) also expressed their concerns about violence. [117] The NFL reportedly planned to launch a counterattack, but it was also called off due to poor weather conditions. [266][267][268][269] Other Turkish and rebel sources indicated 55 to 70 Turkish soldiers killed,[266][267] with some local reports as high as 100. [199] The SAA, alongside the auxiliary Local Defense Forces and Liwa al-Quds, advanced north of Az Zarbah and captured Rif Muhandiseen and Kafr Jum along with several surrounding tactical points on the approach to the strategic Regiment 46 base, also known as Base 46, which fell to rebel forces in November 2012. According to front line reports, the SAA death toll had risen to 40, with over 50 wounded.